Robert Koch Institute Data From Germany Confirms Negative Vaccine Efficacy From Denmark
Germany is 70.5% fully vaccinated (as per OWID definition) thus Germany is left with 29.5% unvaccinated. Germany is 38.2% boosted as of 12/30/21 and it’s not clear if this study is using that figure or only counting as boosted those who got their booster more than 14 days ago (as many seem to count it). If this is so, the number drops to 29.3%. We will consider both scenarios.
The above graph actually shows that the boosters have a negative VE (vaccine efficacy) and consists of the following data set:
- 4020 cases with 2 or more doses of vaccine
- 1137 of them with boosters
- 186 cases in the unvaccinated (there is no data people with 1 dose, so we will assume they are included with the unvaccinated)
Warning: The above data is small and likely an incomplete societal dataset. The sample size is large enough to give us a sense of outcomes, but as with all societal data, it’s difficult to know what bias may be injected by self selection for testing and for vaccination. Error bars are probably meaningful.
To begin our analysis let’s regroup the terms:
The above graph shows us 3 groups that are actually fairly similar in size, but quite different in outcomes.
It would be wrong to assume that because cases in the boosted are a lower percentage of overall cases than the boosted are of the overall population that this shows vaccine efficacy but this is not correct and will become obvious once we view it on per capita basis.
The data appears to be using 83.2 million total population for Germany.
OK let’s see what the data looks like per 100k of vaccination status.
Calculating VE (Vaccine Efficacy)
To calculate VE, we need to compare the vaccinated cohorts to the unvaccinated the control group. There are probably some pretty significant error bars here, but this outcome is STARK, unpleasant and clear.
The risk ratios for all vaccinated groups are far, far higher than control group of the unvaccinated.
Boosting does seem to lead to a 2/3 risk reduction vs just being double vaxxed but still leaves one at 4.7X the risk of the unvaccinated in catching Omicron.
This risk ratio leads to VE figures that are, frankly, so bad that there has to be some sort of bias here. This appears too extreme to be entirely plausible?
One possible source of bias here could be definitions. If the German study is using “boosted +14 days” as per definition, then the numbers change quite a bit as the size of the boosted group shrinks and the size of double vaxxed rises causing their risk rates to converge somewhat.
Another possible source of contamination is the actual act of running a booster campaign during an outbreak. The tendency toward transitory 10 day immune suppression created by mRNA vaccine administration is well documented.
Danish Data Agrees
The Danes confirm the same result and found it to be in the order of 40-100% increase in the likelihood of infection in the 2 weeks following administration (with 100% likely being a better proxy for genpop as they resemble HCW’s more than NH residents). This study was conducted during a period of relatively low prevalence and with a less contagious variant than omicron. This needle could have moved quite a lot by now.
Risk Multiplication
The conclusion is scary and appear to point to risk multiplication. All these risks pile up on top of each other and if you double the risk of a group already showing increased risk due to vaccine escape/antigenic fixation/OAS the issue is multiplied and the risk is multiplied.
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