COVID-19

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised in NSW Australia — Thursday 27 Jan, 2022

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Older age is a significant risk factor for serious illness and death for COVID-19. For the 27th of January 100% of the deaths were people over 60; averaging out to 93% for the last 7 days.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the 27th of January, 2022 was calculated to be NEGATIVE at -12%.

The 7 day average was calculated to also be NEGATIVE at -37%.

About

Vaccine effectiveness against death once hospitalised simply looks at the latest known hospital occupancy of the vaxxed verses the unvaxxed and the deaths associated with the same cohort.

This calculation is measuring severe cases (hospitalised patients) and then comparing them against the final outcome and the number of deaths for this cohort. Vaccination rate of the population is irrelevant for this calculation as this method does NOT allow the vaccine to receive glory for vaxxing the young and healthy. This formula is a better measuring stick as it shows the true vaccine efficacy (protection) of the vulnerable (older age groups) once hospitalised.

Disclaimer:

We know that COVID-19 disproportionately targets the elderly and sadly the publicly available data provided by NSW Health is incomplete and we do not know the age breakdown of the people in hospital hence our limitations to draw authoritative conclusions. Sometimes they mention a particular individual with all the details but this is not the standard for all. Therefore the vaccine efficacy once hospitalised against death as calculated here should be treated as a rough guide and should only be applied to the older vulnerable age groups (+50) as they are the ones that are dying. I will attempt to access all the required data but at this stage these —real world— numbers are what we have to work with.

Data:

Patients in hospital:

Vaxxed 70.2%
Unvaxxed 27.6%

*Data taken from the COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard put out by NSW Health on the 19th of January. Please see screenshot at the bottom of page with link to the original document.

Deaths:

Sadly, NSW Health is reporting the deaths of 29 people with COVID-19; 19 men and 10 women.

Four people had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 16 people had received two doses, two people have received one dose and seven people were not vaccinated.

Of the 29 people who died; two people were aged in their 60s, eight people were aged in their 70s, 13 were aged in their 80s and six were aged in their 90s.

Triple or Double Vaxxed 20 ppl (69.0%)
Partially Vaxxed 2 ppl (6.9%)
Unvaxxed 7 ppl (24.1%)

*Data taken from NSW Health twitter update with links to the tweets further down this page. than give us data for the single dose. Partially vaccinated was not added neither to the vaccinated or unvaccinated.

Calculation:

*Above data table shows the calculation to obtain Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for January 27, 2022:

= NEGATIVE -12.3%.

Seven Day Average:

The 7 Day Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the period starting from January 20, 2022 to January 27, 2022

= NEGATIVE -37%

Deaths by Dose, Comorbidity And Age Breakdown

*We do not get a detailed list of vaccine status for each case and age group but we do get totals per age group and sometimes they give us the comorbidity details as well.

Data Source:

Hospital Occupancy Data By Vaccine Status Was taken From The COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/

NOTE:

Please remember I currently do not have access to detail mortality data broken down by age and vaccine status so the signal reliability will be crude and perhaps should only be applied to get an indication how well the vaccine protect the vulnerable (elderly).

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