COVID-19

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised in NSW Australia — Friday 28 Jan, 2022

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Older age is a significant risk factor for serious illness and death for COVID-19, particularly when combined with significant underlying health conditions.

For the 28th of January NSW Health reported 70 deaths. 35 deaths today and an additional 35 in late reporting.

Today’s data alone shows that 97% of the deaths were people over 60; averaging out to 94% for the last 7 days.

The late reporting data happened earlier in January and by chance happened to also equal 35 people. These people, 19 men and 16 women, were residents of aged care facilities hence this further highlights the vulnerability of the elderly.

From the late reporting data only three people had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 18 people had received two doses and 14 people in the old age homes were not vaccinated.

Data below does not include the late reporting deaths that occurred earlier in January.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the 28th of January, 2022 was calculated to be POSITIVE at 31%.

The 7 day average was calculated to remain NEGATIVE at -35%.

About

Vaccine effectiveness against death once hospitalised simply looks at the latest known hospital occupancy of the vaxxed verses the unvaxxed and the deaths associated with the same cohort.

This calculation is measuring severe cases (hospitalised patients) and then comparing them against the final outcome and the number of deaths for this cohort. Vaccination rate of the population is irrelevant for this calculation as this method does NOT allow the vaccine to receive glory for vaxxing the young and healthy. This formula is a better measuring stick as it shows the true vaccine efficacy (protection) of the vulnerable (older age groups) once hospitalised.

Disclaimer:

We know that COVID-19 disproportionately targets the elderly and sadly the publicly available data provided by NSW Health is incomplete and we do not know the age breakdown of the people in hospital hence our limitations to draw authoritative conclusions. Sometimes they mention a particular individual with all the details but this is not the standard for all. Therefore the vaccine efficacy once hospitalised against death as calculated here should be treated as a rough guide and should only be applied to the older vulnerable age groups (+50) as they are the ones that are dying. I will attempt to access all the required data but at this stage these —real world— numbers are what we have to work with.

Data:

Patients in hospital:

Vaxxed 71.8%
Unvaxxed 25.8%

*Data taken from the COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard put out by NSW Health on the 19th of January. Please see screenshot at the bottom of page with link to the original document.

Deaths:

Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 35 people with COVID-19; 20 men and 15 women. These deaths were reported in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Of the 35 people who died; one person was in their 40s, two people were in their 60s, six people were in their 70s, 11 people were in their 80s, 14 people were in their 90s and one person was aged more than 100 years old.

Eight people had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 15 people had received two doses and 12 people were not vaccinated. Two people who died were aged under 65. A man in his 40s had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine and a woman in her 60s was not vaccinated.

Some deaths were reported later and occured in 14 aged care facilities in South Western Sydney Local Health District on dates from 2 January to 20 January 2022. It is important to note that delayed reporting can make the boosters look more effective than they actually are.

IMPORTANT: Adding deaths with such a delay can make booster shots look more effective than they actually are. Please see a video of Professor Norman Fenton explaining this statistical illusion by clicking on the link –> here.

Triple or Double Vaxxed 23 ppl (65.7%)
Partially Vaxxed 0 ppl (0.0%)
Unvaxxed 12 ppl (34.3%)

*Data taken from NSW Health twitter update with links to the tweets further down this page. than give us data for the single dose. Partially vaccinated was not added neither to the vaccinated or unvaccinated.

Calculation:

*Above data table shows the calculation to obtain Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for January 28, 2022:

= POSITIVE +31.1%.

Seven Day Average:

The 7 Day Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the period starting from January 22, 2022 to January 28, 2022

= NEGATIVE -35%

Deaths by Dose, Comorbidity And Age Breakdown

*We do not get a detailed list of vaccine status for each case and age group but we do get totals per age group and sometimes they give us the comorbidity details as well.

Late Reporting Data

Data Source:

Hospital Occupancy Data By Vaccine Status Was taken From The COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/

NOTE:

Please remember I currently do not have access to detail mortality data broken down by age and vaccine status so the signal reliability will be crude and perhaps should only be applied to get an indication how well the vaccine protect the vulnerable (elderly).

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