COVID-19

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised in NSW Australia — Saturday 29 Jan, 2022

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Older age is a significant risk factor for serious illness and death for COVID-19, particularly when combined with significant underlying health conditions.

Today’s data shows that 100% of the deaths were people over 60; averaging out to 95% for the last 7 days.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the 29th of January, 2022 was calculated to be NEGATIVE at -5%.

The 7 day moving average was calculated to be NEGATIVE at -37% (229 lives lost).

About

Vaccine effectiveness against death once hospitalised simply looks at the latest known hospital occupancy of the vaxxed verses the unvaxxed and the deaths associated with the same cohort.

This calculation is measuring severe cases (hospitalised patients) and then comparing them against the final outcome and the number of deaths for this cohort. Vaccination rate of the population is irrelevant for this calculation as this method does NOT allow the vaccine to receive glory for vaxxing the young and healthy. This formula is a better measuring stick as it shows the true vaccine efficacy (protection) of the vulnerable (older age groups) once hospitalised.

Disclaimer:

We know that COVID-19 disproportionately targets the elderly and sadly the publicly available data provided by NSW Health is incomplete and we do not know the age breakdown of the people in hospital hence our limitations to draw authoritative conclusions. Sometimes they mention a particular individual with all the details but this is not the standard for all. Therefore the vaccine efficacy once hospitalised against death as calculated here should be treated as a rough guide and should only be applied to the older vulnerable age groups (+50) as they are the ones that are dying. I will attempt to access all the required data but at this stage these —real world— numbers are what we have to work with.

Data:

Patients in hospital:

Vaxxed 71.8%
Unvaxxed 25.8%

*Data taken from the COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard put out by NSW Health on the 19th of January. Please see screenshot at the bottom of page with link to the original document.

Deaths:

Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 49 people with COVID-19; 28 women and 21 men. These deaths were reported in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Of the 49 people who died; two people were in their 60s, 10 people were in their 70s, 17 people were in their 80s, 19 people were in their 90s, and one person was aged 100 years old.

One person who died was aged under 65. This man, aged in his 60s, had received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and had significant underlying health conditions.

Eleven of the 49 people who died had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 24 people had received two doses, two people had received one dose, and 12 people were not vaccinated.

Triple or Double Vaxxed 35 ppl (71.4%)
Partially Vaxxed 2 ppl (4.1%)
Unvaxxed 12 ppl (24.5%)

*Data taken from NSW Health twitter update with links to the tweets further down this page. than give us data for the single dose. Partially vaccinated was not added neither to the vaccinated or unvaccinated.

Calculation:

*Above data table shows the calculation to obtain Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for January 29, 2022:

= NEGATIVE -4.8%.

Seven Day Average:

The 7 Day Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the period starting from January 23, 2022 to January 29, 2022

= NEGATIVE -37%

Deaths by Dose, Comorbidity And Age Breakdown

*We do not get a detailed list of vaccine status for each case and age group but we do get totals per age group and sometimes they give us the comorbidity details as well.

Data Source:

Hospital Occupancy Data By Vaccine Status Was taken From The COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/

NOTE:

Please remember I currently do not have access to detail mortality data broken down by age and vaccine status so the signal reliability will be crude and perhaps should only be applied to get an indication how well the vaccine protect the vulnerable (elderly).

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