COVID-19

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised in NSW Australia — Thursday 3 Feb, 2022

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Older age is a significant risk factor for serious illness and death for COVID-19, particularly when combined with significant underlying health conditions.

Today’s data shows that 100% of the deaths today were people over 50; averaging out to 99.2% for the last 7 days or 98% for people over 60 or 90% for people over 70 (76% of deaths were among the jabbed in the last 7 days).

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the 3rd of February, 2022 was calculated to be NEGATIVE at -16%.

The 7 day moving average was calculated to be NEGATIVE at -30% (258 lives lost).

Hospitalised vs Mortality With Vaccine Status

For hospitalised patients we are not given dose numbers and we are not given an age or comorbidity breakdown. There is also a small number of people with an unknown status classified as ‘other’.

About

Vaccine effectiveness against death once hospitalised simply looks at the latest known hospital occupancy of the vaxxed verses the unvaxxed and the deaths associated with the same cohort.

This calculation is measuring severe cases (hospitalised patients) and then comparing them against the final outcome and the number of deaths for this cohort. Vaccination rate of the population is irrelevant for this calculation as this method does NOT allow the vaccine to receive glory for vaxxing the young and healthy. This formula is a better measuring stick as it shows the true vaccine efficacy (protection) of the vulnerable (older age groups) once hospitalised.

Disclaimer:

We know that COVID-19 disproportionately targets the elderly and sadly the publicly available data provided by NSW Health is incomplete and we do not know the age breakdown or comorbidity of the people in hospital hence our limitations to draw authoritative conclusions. It is simply a snapshot or possible signal showing how the vaccinated compare with the unvaccinated in severe cases (once hospitalised). Therefore the vaccine efficacy once hospitalised against death as calculated here should be treated as a rough guide and should only be applied to the older vulnerable age groups (+50) as they are the ones that are dying and that this data is representing. I will attempt to access all the required data but at this stage these —real world— numbers are what we have to work with.

This calculation could be better if we had hospitalisation data by age group and comorbidity for each individual case and if people are in hospital for COVID-19 or with COVID-19.

Data:

Patients in hospital:

Vaxxed 71.8%
Unvaxxed 25.8%
Other 2.4%

*Data taken from the COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard put out by NSW Health on the 19th of January. This data is not broken down by dose, age or comorbidity. I am attempting to find better data. For source please see screenshot at the bottom of page with link to the original NSW Health document.

Deaths:

Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 38 people with COVID-19; 22 men and 16 women.

Of the 38 people who died, two people were in their 50s, four people were in their 60s, nine people were in their 70s, 13 people were in their 80s, and 10 people were in their 90s.

Four people who died had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 24 people had received two doses, one person had received one dose and nine people were not vaccinated.

Of the four people who died aged under 65, three were men and one was a woman and all had underlying health conditions. One person had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, two people had received two doses and one person was not vaccinated.

Triple Vaxxed 4 ppl (10.5%)
Double Vaxxed 24 ppl (63.2%)
Partially Vaxxed 1 ppl (2.6%)
Unvaxxed 9 ppl (23.7%)

*Data taken from NSW Health twitter update with links to the tweets further down this page. Partially vaccinated have been added to the vaccinated because they were either injured by the vaccine and could not take the second shot or it is a direct result of vaccinating during a pandemic which has its own risks for the first 10 days after each shot and is part of the risks attributed to mass vaccination of the whole population.

Calculation:

*Above data table shows the calculation to obtain Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for February 3, 2022:

= NEGATIVE -15.8%.

Seven Day Average:

The 7 Day Moving Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the period starting from January 28, 2022 to February 3, 2022

= NEGATIVE -30%

Deaths by Dose, Comorbidity And Age Breakdown

*We do not get a detailed list of vaccine status for each case and age group but we do get totals per age group and sometimes they give us the comorbidity details as well.

Data Source:

Hospital Occupancy Data By Vaccine Status Was taken From The COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/

NOTE:

Please remember I currently do not have access to detail mortality data broken down by age and vaccine status so the signal reliability will be crude and perhaps should only be applied to get an indication how well the vaccine protect the vulnerable (elderly).

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