In the past 22 weeks we have had 10,615 more deaths than we would expect for the time of year if the chance of dying was the same as pre-pandemic.
For the latest week, deaths 8.0%, or 830 deaths higher than what you would expect based on pre-pandemic death rates.
Looking at deaths from all causes, over the past 22 weeks deaths are above expectation for all age groups, except those aged 10-14.
The largest percentages above expectation are those aged 35 to 59. Younger have fewer deaths so small fluctuations can impact percentages.
Excluding deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate we see that there are fewer deaths than you would expect among those aged 75 to 89.
The highest % of deaths above average with Covid not mentioned on the death certificate are those aged 45 to 54.
So the higher-than-expected deaths in many of the elderly can be explained by Covid mentioned as a cause of death – we did see a mini wave over the summer.
For younger age groups we have to look at other data sources to understand causes in more detail.
Data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities suggests we are seeing over the same period higher than expected deaths linked to heart issues. Data here ->
This is data excluding deaths where Covid is the main cause of death.
Deaths have been above expectation since around week 19 of 2022 and coincides with a collapse in NHS healthcare.
We have seen issues with discharging patients leading to blockages with beds, ambulance delays to respond and transfer to hospital, which will be killing people.
Comparisons of deaths vs previous years are impacted by population growth, and underlying ageing (more people who are older).
I have accounted for this by using death rates across 2015-19 (pre-pandemic) and applying them to the 2022 population structure in my numbers.