Steve Kirsch posed the following problem: He has a dataset of 7500 people of whom 5625 were vaxxed; 1875 were unvaxxed Over a period of 6 months (182 days) 15 people died, ALL from the vaxxed group Of the 15 who died, 4 died within 24 hours of getting the vaccine. Steve asked what’s the probability of this happening if the vaxx was safe?
Here’s how I answered it using Bayes Theorem to combine the different pieces of evidence. (Note: this assumes the data is accurate, ignores all confounders like age, and assumes the vaxxed and unvaxxed are similar types of people)
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