The Harm from This Immune-Escape Pandemic Won’t Just Grow Slowly—It Will Be Far Worse

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Some people believe that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will lead to increasing rates of long COVID, immune-related diseases, cancers, and higher death rates in the coming years. This view is misguided and stems from a misunderstanding of how mass vaccination and vaccine-breakthrough infections (VBTIs)—infections that occur despite vaccination—affect the virus and the immune system.

Here are key points that many scientists and experts seem to overlook:

The SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) virus continues to evolve, producing new subvariants that are more transmissible due to mutations that help the virus evade the immune system. These mutations, often referred to as immune-escape mutations, tend to cluster in regions of the virus targeted by protective T-cells (Tc), specifically in areas known as Tc epitopes (see https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/ ). Tc epitopes are parts of the virus that T-cells recognize to mount an immune response. When mutations occur in these epitopes, the virus becomes harder for the immune system to detect, allowing it to spread more easily between individuals.When new subvariants with these immune-escape mutations cause vaccine breakthrough infections (VBTIs), they trigger a phenomenon called immune refocusing. This means the immune system shifts its focus toward these mutated Tc epitopes, attempting to adapt to the changing virus. However, this adaptation increases collective immune pressure on the virus, pushing it to evolve further to maintain its ability to spread. This dynamic creates a cycle where subvariants that are better at evading T-cell responses gain a competitive edge. As a result, certain variants, such as the hypothetical XFG variant, become dominant by outcompeting other co-circulating subvariants (see Fig. 1 for a visual representation).

Looking ahead, there’s a potential for an even more extreme mutation to emerge—one that could drastically enhance the virus’s transmissibility. This would involve a mutation that completely disrupts antigen presentation, the process by which infected cells display viral fragments to alert the immune system. If antigen presentation is blocked, the immune system would fail to recognize any circulating SC-2 subvariants. One way this could happen is through additional glycosylation of the virus’s spike protein at highly conserved sites. Glycosylation involves adding sugar molecules to the protein, which can shield it from immune detection. This would allow the virus to spread rapidly between hosts (inter-host transmission) and replicate unchecked within hosts (intra-host dissemination) due to the complete lack of immune protection.Such a highly transmissible variant, referred to here as HiViCron, would mark a turning point. Its increased spread would no longer drive immune escape or immune refocusing because it would overwhelm susceptible individuals, leading to hyper-acute mortality (see Fig. 2). In other words, the virus’s extreme transmissibility would cause rapid and severe disease in those who lack immunity, reducing the need for further immune evasion strategies.

This scenario challenges the assumption that the virus will simply continue to weaken the population over time. Instead, nature may intervene more drastically to restore balance between the virus and the host’s immune system. This balance could have been achieved naturally through herd immunity, where enough people develop robust immunity to limit the virus’s spread. However, the widespread use of mass vaccination during the pandemic may have disrupted this natural process, driving the virus to evolve in ways that evade vaccine-induced immunity and complicating the path to equilibrium.

Explanation of Key Dynamics:

Immune-Escape Mutations and T-Cell Epitopes: Mutations in Tc epitopes make it harder for T-cells to recognize the virus, reducing the immune system’s ability to control it. This increases transmissibility, as the virus can infect more people before being neutralized.

Immune Refocusing:

When breakthrough infections occur (infections despite vaccination), the immune system tries to adapt by targeting the mutated epitopes. This adaptation increases selective pressure on the virus, favoring subvariants with even better immune-evasion capabilities.

Competition Among Variants:

Subvariants with the most effective immune-escape mutations outcompete others, becoming dominant. This is why certain variants, like the hypothetical XFG, rise to prominence.

Potential for Extreme Mutations:

A mutation that blocks antigen presentation (e.g., through glycosylation) could render the virus invisible to the immune system. This would lead to a highly transmissible variant (HiViCron) that spreads rapidly and causes severe outcomes in susceptible individuals.

Disruption of Natural Equilibrium:

Mass vaccination may have interfered with herd immunity, which could have allowed the population to develop natural, long-lasting immunity. Instead, vaccine-driven immune pressure may have accelerated the evolution of immune-evasive variants, leading to a more dangerous viral landscape.

Source:
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/no-the-damage-resulting-from-this