COVID-19

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised in NSW Australia — 21 Jan, 2022

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Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the 21st of January, 2022 was POSITIVE at +16%. The 7 day average was calculated to be NEGATIVE -86%.

About

Vaccine effectiveness against death once hospitalised simply looks at the latest known hospital occupancy of the vaxxed verses the unvaxxed and the deaths associated with the same cohort.

This calculation is measuring severe cases (hospitalised patients) and then comparing them against the final outcome and the number of deaths for this cohort. Vaccination rate of the population is irrelevant for this calculation as this method does NOT allow the vaccine to receive glory for vaxxing the young and healthy. This formula is a better measuring stick as it shows the true vaccine efficacy (protection) of the vulnerable (older age groups).

Seven of the deaths included today have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – these seven deaths occurred from 29 December through to 13 January so they are more likely to be Delta and unvaccinated.

Adding deaths with such a delay can make booster shots look more effective than they actually are. Please see a video of Professor Norman Fenton explaining this statistical illusion by clicking on the link –> here.

Disclaimer:

We know that COVID-19 disproportionately targets the elderly and sadly the publicly available data provided by NSW Health is incomplete and we are unable to do this for each age group. We get information of the totals with their age but not an exact breakdown of vaccine status for each deceased individual or age group. Sometimes they mention a particular individual with all the details but this is not the standard for all. Therefore the vaccine efficacy once hospitalised against death as calculated here should be treated as a rough guide and should only be applied to the older vulnerable age groups. I will attempt to access all the required data but at this stage these —real world— numbers are what we have to work with.

Data:

Patients in hospital:

Vaxxed 70.2%
Unvaxxed 27.6%

*Data taken from the COVID-19 Risk Management Dashboard put out by NSW Health on the 19th of January. Please see screenshot at the bottom of page with link to the original document.

Deaths:

Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 46 people with COVID-19; 33 men and 13 women. Seven of these deaths have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – these seven deaths occurred from 29 December through to 13 January. We would assume that the 7 that were added for that period would have been for Delta and not Omicron but we have no choice but include these deaths in our analysis.

One person had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, 29 people had received two doses, two people had received one dose and 14 people were not vaccinated.

Vaxxed 30 ppl (65.2%)
Partially Vaxxed 2 ppl (4.3%)
Unvaxxed 14 ppl (30.4%)

*Data taken from NSW Health twitter update with links to the tweets further down this page.

Calculation:

*Above data table shows the calculation to obtain Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised. Partially vaxxed excluded from this calculation and were not added to the vaxxed or unvaxxed.

Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for January 21, 2022:

= POSITIVE +15.8%.

The 7 Day Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death Once Hospitalised for the period starting from January 15, 2022 to January 21, 2022

= NEGATIVE -86%

Data Source:

Video below is of Dr Kerry Chant giving us extra information for under 65 but being two years into the pandemic we still don’t have access to this full dataset.

Hospital Occupancy Date By Vaccien Status Was taken From Here

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/

NOTE:

Please remember I currently do not have access to detail mortality data broken down by age and vaccine status so the signal reliability will be crude and perhaps should only be applied to get an indication how well the vaccine protect the vulnerable (elderly).

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