WAR UPDATE: Turning Point In The Ukraine War

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A Ukrainian counterattack in the north near Kharkiv has broken deep into Russian held territory, seriously threatening key logistic hubs.

Russian lines are collapsing faster than Ukraine can even advance and clear liberated areas.

Kharkiv Front is what a successful armored warfare looks like. There are many aspects to what appears to have made this operation work & I’d like to briefly go over a few of them. We’ll start from the top & work our way down.

Russian State TV is freaking out.

The UAF have pulled off a remarkable strategic deception. By initiating, even telegraphing, an offensive in OpComSouth as their main effort they have successfully induced the Russian command to transfer a considerable number of troops south. Including some higher quality formations. This seems to have denuded the Russians opposite OpComEast of ready reserves & robust combat units in general. Furthermore the UAF was able to mass combat power in excess of what many analysts (including myself, I must admit) thought was possible.

This is a great video showing the tactics used by Ukraine to break through the Russian defenses in the Kharkiv region.

The UAF have now effectively launched two assaults in two separate operational areas. A fixing attack at Kherson that the Russians cannot ignore, & an armored/mech deep penetration strike into the rear of Russian forces in the east. This will force Russian commanders to make hard choices with scarce reserves of combat formations capable of standing up to heavy UAF formations, many of whom are currently out of position to immediately engage thanks to the aforementioned deception in the South. Any redeployment will take time Russia doesn’t have.

This appears to have been a coordinated plan. Now to the tactical/operational side. UAF assault units, composed primarily of armored & mechanized formations acting in concert (quantity unknown), overran and shattered Russian front line units – reportedly composed heavily of DPR/LPR units. UAF formations then maintained the momentum of their advance, continuing deep into the Russian rear areas & preventing Russian lines from reforming & solidifying. The breach was then widened & exploited by follow on units, to a point that it appears to be destabilizing the entire front north & west of Izium. Russian units in the area of advance have not yet been able to reform coherently enough to mount an effective defense. Those areas (primarily urban) where Russian troops have held together have, correctly, been bypassed by UAF spearhead units. Pocketed &isolated, these Russians are/will likely be surrounded & compelled to surrender in short order. The UAF has placed primacy on speed & violence of action so as not to slow down their assault units & allow the Russians time to recover.

Currently the Russians are scrambling to reinforce their lines. Lead UAF elements appear to be driving on Kupyansk as their primary objective – a major railway nexus supplying Russian formations. Taking it would have strategic implications for the entire eastern front.

There are already reports of UAF units in or near the outskirts of the city, given the condition of Russian resistance – they are highly plausible IMO. Further information indicates UAF units are expanding their breach south, with an eastern boundary along the Oskol river.

If the Russians cannot swiftly bring additional forces to bear, this could conceivably put the city of Izium into play from the north. Even if they can, this assault has effectively reordered the situation in OpComEast already.

Going forward: the butcher’s bill for Russian forces from this operation is unlikely to be low in either man or materiel, neither of which they can afford. UAF losses are likely to be substantial, but less than would be expected given the swift collapse of RU forward units.

If the UAF can keep them on their heels until their own planned halt points are reached, it will climb higher. The danger for the UAF will be overextension. They will be tempted to continue on once reaching their own pre-planned stop lines, given RU performance.

This must be resisted. The UAF will need time to reorganize, refit, consolidate its lines of supply & communication, deal with rear-area holdouts, & then ready itself for a fresh offensive. Given its performance to date, I am optimistic this concern will be heeded.

In the back of every good analyst’s mind for 7 months has been at least one question: “What will Ukraine look like on offense?”

We’re finding out. They’re giving us all a hell of a show on their 1st time out.

This is almost moving faster than nooows can report.

There are now reports that UAF units are hitting Izium from the south with heavy fighting within the city limits. The entire tenor of the war in the east has changed.

We’re finding out. They’re giving us all a hell of a show on their 1st time out.

The Ukrainian Army is about to close the Izyum Pocket. Thousands of Russian soldiers will be killed or captured.

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