Vaccine efficacy ‘cheap trick’ by exclusion

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Our main simulated example of the vaccine efficacy ‘cheap trick’

The vaccine efficacy illusion revisited was based on the assumption that those who tested positive for infection within a short period after vaccination (e.g., 7, 14 or 21 days) were classified as unvaccinated.

However, many said that our example was unfair because it was more likely that cases shortly after vaccination would simply be excluded rather than classified as unvaccinated.

This simulation shows that exclusion leads to high efficacy too. And not just for a placebo vaccine but also for a vaccine that has genuine negative efficacy.

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